In the first half of this year, China's machine tool consumption market still ranked first.
in the first half of 2014, the economic operation of the machine tool industry was generally low and stable. Although the government has strengthened the policy of stabilizing growth and coping with the economic downturn since the second quarter, under the combined influence of multiple adverse factors, such as the structural adjustment of domestic market demand, the slow recovery of the international market before it is stored in the oil tank, the intensified competition for commodities with large market space, the serious lack of working capital and the long-term deterioration of financial conditions, the operating difficulties and potential risks of enterprises have intensified, and the operating pressure of the industry is still great
I. the growth rate of the whole industry dropped
Yucheng will become one of the six major rare earth functional material bases in China. According to the economic operation data of the National Bureau of statistics in 2014, the main business income of metal processing machine tools increased by 8.7% year on year, metal cutting machine tools increased by 6.4% year on year, and metal forming machine tools increased by 13.3% year on year Compared with the first quarter, it changed by -0.5, -1.3 and 1 percentage point respectivelyThe statistical data of the key contacts of the machine tool association also shows that the product sales revenue of all enterprises in 2014 decreased by 2.6% year-on-year Among them, the sales revenue of metal cutting machine tools decreased by 7.7% year-on-year; The sales revenue of metal forming machine tools increased by 4.3% year on year
II. The operation quality of the whole industry has declined
1. The financial situation is not optimistic
according to the economic operation data of the National Bureau of statistics in 2014, the profit rate of main business income, the turnover rate of accounts receivable and the asset liability ratio of the whole industry are 5.5%, 4.6% and 54.1% respectively; The above three indexes of metal cutting machine tools are 3%, 2.7% and 62.6% respectively; The above three indexes of metal forming machine tools are 5.8%, 4.2% and 54.3% respectively
it can be seen from the above data that the profit margin of the main business income of the whole industry is lower than the one-year loan interest rate, and the gold cutting machine tool industry is even lower than the one-year fixed deposit interest rate, reflecting a serious decline in the profitability of the industry. The turnover rate of accounts receivable of the whole industry, metal cutting machine tools and metal forming machine tools decreased by 0.2, 0.2 and flat respectively compared with the same period last year, reflecting the deterioration of capital liquidity. The asset liability ratio approaches or exceeds 60% and the financial risk increases
2. Continuous losses and grim situation
according to the economic data of the National Bureau of statistics in 2014, the proportion of loss making enterprises in the whole industry was 13.8%, and the proportion of loss making enterprises in China's holding companies was 41.8% Among the eight sub industries, metal cutting machine tools have the largest loss, accounting for 24.7% of the loss making enterprises, and the loss making proportion of China's holding enterprises reaches 50.8%
2014, the proportion of loss making enterprises in the key contact network of the machine tool association was 38%, of which the metal cutting machine tool was 45.5 (1) the experimental machine should be installed in a clean, dry, vibration free room with room temperature controlled at (10 ~ 35) ℃, and the forming machine tool was 18.2% Compared with the previous month, it increased by 2.3 and 2.2 percentage points respectively
III. steady growth of exports according to the customs statistics, the export value of machine tools and tools in 2014 was US $5.28 billion, an increase of 18.5% year on year, an increase of 7.4% over the same period last year. Under the background of the continuous downturn of domestic market demand and the decline of enterprise production and operation, exports showed steady growth in the first half of 2014. Opening up overseas markets and strengthening exports are becoming an important breakthrough in resolving excess capacity and realizing industrial transformation and upgrading
in terms of export commodity structure, the top three are cutting tools (1.24 billion US dollars), abrasive tools (1.04 billion US dollars) and metal cutting machine tools (970 million US dollars), accounting for 23.5%, 19.7% and 18.4% respectively
IV. market demand tends to stabilize
as China's economic growth slows down and the development mode changes, China's machine tool consumption market and industry are also undergoing profound structural adjustment. The market changes characterized by a significant reduction in the total volume and accelerated structural upgrading are becoming increasingly obvious. As China's economic development enters the new normal, the demand change in the machine tool consumption market will also tend to be stable
1. The total number of orders decreased, and the low level became stable.
according to the statistics of key contact orders of the machine tool association in 2014, the new orders of all enterprises decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, and the orders on hand decreased by 3.3% year-on-year Among them, the new orders of metal cutting machine tools decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the orders on hand decreased by 3.2% year-on-year; The new orders of metal forming machine tools decreased by 8.4% year on year, and the orders on hand decreased by 5.1% year on year
2. Import turned from negative to positive, and the demand for medium and high-end products rebounded.
2014, the total import was US $8.15 billion, an increase of 0.28% year-on-year Compared with the year-on-year import data of 2013 (-20.2%), there was a significant rebound. Since May, the import of machine tool and tool commodities has shown both year-on-year and month on month growth for two consecutive months. Under the comprehensive influence of RMB appreciation, national steady growth, foreign trade promotion and other measures, it is expected that the import in the second half of the year will show an upward trend and drive the annual import to achieve positive growth. As the import situation reflects the demand of the domestic medium and high-end market, the recent trend of import indicates that the demand of the domestic medium and high-end market is picking up
v. prediction and suggestions for the second half of the year
based on the analysis of the industrial economic operation and import and export data in 2014, it is expected that the operation of the machine tool industry in the whole year will be low and stable. Based on the gradual stabilization of the production of metal processing machine tools and the obvious recovery of imports, it is expected that China's machine tool consumption market will continue to maintain the first position in the world in 2014, but the scale will decline
in order to promote the stable operation of the industry and achieve the goal of transformation and upgrading, and deal with adverse factors and downward pressure, it is suggested to increase support for enterprise exports and take advantage of the international market to resolve excess capacity; Further lower the threshold of export credit, clear up unreasonable charges, increase support for opening up overseas markets and exhibition promotion, and increase the scope and intensity of tax rebates for export commodities for the purpose of balancing exchange rate appreciation; Implement the policy of financial support for the real economy, and solve the problem of tight capital chain caused by banks and other financial institutions' lending, delaying and stopping loans to industrial enterprises; Provide necessary financial support to enterprises that meet the direction of industrial structure adjustment and the goal of transformation and upgrading; In the process of using national financial funds for investment, it is necessary to increase the consideration of domestic independent brand product support, so as to create a fair and reasonable industrial development environment